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The post-pandemic world might be even more dangerous for the arts

When - eventually - the world is declared 'normal' again and there are no lockdowns, enforced social distancing, closures of theatres and coronavirus is largely suppressed by vaccines, the performing arts world will emerge a very different beast.
So, too, will audiences.

It is optimistic to think that audiences will flood back as before, and although a large proportion of them will, I think that the immediate post-pandemic period may be even riskier than the disruption of 2020 itself. COVID was unquestionably a disaster for many companies (and particularly individuals) but I would also wager that many mid to large scale companies will have actually found their finances in decent order this year. The largesse of audiences, a reduction in the spending on work, often panicked, opportunistic staff reductions and the risk elements of audience response removed, the balance sheet will be better for some than it has been for many years. The support of furlough along with the many companies who received large grants from the emergency fund (some of whom clearly, in my view, didn't need it) will have helped shore up the finances. I'm not suggesting it was great, but few in this industry make huge profits and many spend in a profligate way (ticket sales rarely cover production costs for many) so it wasn't the end of the world to put the brakes on that latter element and redress the balance a bit. It is a weird truth with which some may vehemently disagree but I know what I know.

So the next phase of this pandemic - the return - presents some new and exquisitely dangerous pitfalls for companies who might make wrong assumptions. Audiences will return, but I suggest they will do so with more conditions than we expect. It will take at least a year for the psychological damage of COVID - the habits and behaviours it has inculcated in people - to work its way out of our system, especially for the older population upon which the industry is so utterly dependent. When theatres are unrestricted capacity-wise, we may see 80% houses but the difference between 80% and 90% is critical - that extra 10% represents success for the bottom line. It would be wrong to think audiences will flood back, and previous methods of forecasting just won't hold - a new algorithm will need to be introduced and it is a negative, dampening, almost conceptual process. Finding its parameters will be the difference between success and failure. One other factor that will affect things is how the non-committed audience - love to go to the theatre now and again, go to the 'pops' etc.- will have gotten out of the habit and not feel especially desperate to get back to the theatre. They'll probably make up for lost holidays and this is an added risk for summer festivals because that (special) occasional audience is critical.

At the start of the pandemic, audiences were generous, giving up their refunds, making donations, maintaining their membership fees etc. That unconditional generosity won't continue either; the relationships will return to being more transactional and whilst -again most will continue to pay their dues, enough will act with more caution. Companies very often make the assumption that regular support or membership represents absolute loyalty but in truth it rarely has for most and is often a benefits led decision - take it for granted at your peril because people aren't stupid and will realise it will be easier to get tickets as a non-member.

So as behaviours emerge and before we can genuinely say that the pandemic has worked its way out of our system entirely (probably two years) it is going to be a period of great danger for companies and festivals. The risk factors that we understood so well in the past and could judge accurately, will have undergone a transformation. If you spend more than you should, you could be in real trouble. If you programme badly or too optimistically, if you go for the 'big one' and if you make the mistake of thinking your audience cares quite as much as you do, or values what you are offering without conditions, then you will be in trouble.

This all goes back to something I have been saying for some time; the performing arts, and especially the opera business, needs to totally recalibrate itself, its expenditure, its methods, its expectations. It needs to actively re-educate audiences too. And it is a wonderful opportunity to reinvent the business and to make it more sustainable. Some will understand this, but there is an alternative nightmare which is that whatever money is out there, whatever philanthropy is available, will be drawn to a small circle of 'elite' companies - this is a result of years of backward, skewed presentation of the art form of opera and there is a short window of opportunity for smaller companies to teach their audiences about the 'new way' and to reset thinking about what represents exciting, valuable opera production. With the small amount of media coverage that the industry gets being fairly one-dimensional and focused on 'stars' or larger glamorous companies, we are up against it. Here, I'll just throw in the issue of ticket pricing too..

What about digital? Companies have had to embrace the concept of presenting their work to audiences on screens and phones; it is has been successful for many and not so for others and it is expensive to do to a high quality. For me, digital needs to be used in order to support and encourage the concept of being there live. Don't be fooled by some of the high numbers of viewers being reported - they had little choice during the pandemic and it is not an endorsement of the digital broadcast as a replacement.

The mindset that company managers had to adopt during the pandemic would be useful to maintain for the first year or so of the post-pandemic period. Assume the worst, be sensible.

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